Daily Market Analysis 01/08/2008

EURUSD to break the range forcefully at the NFP figures today
The trading range is too compressed, indicating a good chance of a break away.
Overnight News Bullets GE ILO Unemployment Rate (Jun) out at 7.3% vs. 7.4% expected. UK Nat’wide Prices MoM/YoY (Jul) out at -1.7%/-8.1% vs. -1.2%/-7.3% expected. SW Consumer Confidence (Jul) out at -18.2 vs. -12.0 expected. SW Economic Tendency Survey (Jul) out at 89.0 vs. 93.8 expected. SW Manufacturing Confidence (Jul) out at -9.0 vs. -1.0 expected. GE Unemployment Change (Jul) out at -20K as expected. GE Unemployment Rate (Jul) out at 7.8% as expected. NO Unemployment Rate (Jul) out at 1.8% as expected. NO Credit Indicator Growth YoY (Jun) out at 13.3% vs. 13.8% expected. EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (Jul) out at 4.1% as expected. EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (Jun) out at 7.3% vs. 7.2% expected. CA GDP MoM (May) out at -0.1% vs. 0.2% expected. US GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A) out at 1.9% vs. 2.3% expected. US Personal Consumption (2Q A) out at 1.5% vs. 1.7% expected. US GDP Price Index (2Q A) out at 2.2% vs. 2.4% expected. US Core PCE QoQ (2Q A) out at 2.1% vs. 2.0% expected. US Employment Cost Index (2Q) out at 0.7% as expected. US Initial Jobless Claims out at 448K vs. 393K expected. US Continuing Claims out at 3282K vs. 3150K expected. US NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul) out at 44.0 vs. 43.5 expected. AU AiG Performance of Mfg. Index (Jul) out at 46.9 vs. 47.0 prior. JN Vehicle Sales YoY (Jul) out at 5.4% vs. -3.6% expected.
O/N Data Heat map: EU US JP UK SZ AU CA NZ NO SE FR + - - - -
Calendar
Today's Highlights:
Time (GMT) Region Release Consensus 06:00 GE Retail Sales MoM/YoY (Jun) -0.5%/-0.8% 06:30 SW Swedbank PMI (Jul) 49.7 07:30 SW GDP sa QoQ/YoY (2Q) 0.3%/2.0% 07:45-08:00 E-Z A streak of PMI Manufacturing Surveys 08:00 NO Unemployment Rate (May) 2.5% 08:30 UK PMI Manufacturing (Jul) 45.5 12:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) -75K 12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Jun) 5.6% 12:30 US Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) -40K 12:30 US Avg. Hourly Earnings MoM/YoY (Jul) 0.3%/3.4% 12:30 US Avg. Weekly Hours (Jul) 33.7 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing (Jul) 49.0 14:00 US ISM Prices Paid (Jul) 88.0 14:00 US Construction Spending MoM (Jun) -0.3% US Domestic and Total Vehicle Sales 9.9M/13.6M
This and Next Week’s Highlights:
Date Region Release Aug 4 AU House Price Index QoQ/YoY Aug 4 E-Z Euro-Zone PPI Aug 4 US Personal Spending, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, PCE Core, Factory Orders Aug 5 AU RBA Cash Target Aug 5 E-Z A string of PMI figures Aug 5 UK Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production Aug 5 E-Z Euro-Zone Retail Sales Aug 5 US ISM Non-manuf composite, FOMC Rate decision Aug 6 AU Home Loans Aug 6 JN Leading Index, Coincident Index Aug 6 GE Factory Orders Aug 6 US MBA Mortgage Applications, DOE/API Inventories Aug 6 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
What's going on? The median Bloomberg surveyed figure for the July non-farm payrolls from the U.S., due out at 12:30 GMT today, is currently at -75K jobs, and well below the annualized trend line. While the low end of estimates touches -150K, the most optimistic survey is a meager 0. We are geared for a potentially disappointing figures. USD still ranging. Watch out for a forcefull break at the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls today. Descending from the peak valuations, commodities have closed the month of July sharply lower. While the gold is now headed for a third consecutive down week against the USD, yesterday’s brief rally in crude back towards the $130 has fizzled away. Slowing economic growth is seen as the major cause of dropping commodity prices.
GBPUSD to break lower despite weak NFP...?
EUR USD JPY GBP CHF AUD CAD NZD NOK SEK PLN - + - - - FX Trading Strategies
Pair Supp. Resis. Comments GBPUSD 1.9650 1.9930 Despite the weakest US jobless claims since 2003, the GDP figures proved supportive for the USD. July job market report to steal focus today. UK fundamentals continuing to deterioate. We look to sell at 1.9757 offer, stop bid at 1.9788, targeting 1.9655 intraday.
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